Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets - Wednesday, January 10

It’s a quiet three-game night in the NHL on Wednesday, and the trio is headlined by a Western Conference showdown between the Golden Knights and Avalanche.

The pair of favorites in the Stanley Cup odds will meet in tonight’s nightcap, but they could easily square off again this spring to represent the West in the final.

I’m turning my attention to the two earlier Games with my NHL player props for Wednesday, though. The Canadiens and Flyers are set to play a low-scoring contest at Wells Fargo Center, while the injury-depleted  Wild will be in tough again with the Stars the largest NHL odds favorite on the docket.

Here are our free NHL picks for Wednesday, January 10.

NHL prop picks and best bets for January 10

• Zuccarello Under 0.5 points (+175 at Bet99)
• Flyers Under 3.5 goals (-115  at Bet99)
• Ersson Over 24.5 saves (-105 at Bet99)

Picks made on January 10 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets

• Zuccarello
• Flyers
• Ersson

Prop bet #1: No Kaprizov nukes Zuc’s offense

Minnesota Wild winger Mats Zuccarello’s offensive numbers have taken a nosedive when he isn’t skating with Kirill Kaprizov over the past three years. The duo has been on the ice for 5.01 goals per 60 minutes and 3.33 per 60 at 5-on-5, and Zuccarello has 2.27 and 1.38 marks without the Russian star by his side.

With Kaprizov on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, and the Dallas Stars shutting down the Wild on the road Monday, Zuccarello’s offensive opportunities could be few and far between again. The Norwegian winger combined with Marco Rossi and Matt Boldy for just 0.28 expected goals and only registered three shots across 11:16 of 5-on-5 time.

My other biggest knock on the Wild is they’re also missing their two best blueliners. It elevates the entire defense corps into more difficult on-ice matchups that they’re unaccustomed to, and it’ll also be particularly challenging without the benefit of having the last change. 

It’s a small sample of just three Games with Jonas Brodin (upper body), Jared Spurgeon (lower body), and Kaprizov all out of the lineup, but Minnesota has still only scored five times while generating a pedestrian 17 high-danger scoring chances. I don’t think the Minny injuries are being priced into the Mats Zuccarello odds enough.

Mats Zuccarello prop: Under 0.5 points (+175 at Bet99)

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Prop bet #2: Primeau primed for Philly

The Philadelphia Flyers have only scored 12 goals across their past six to drop to a 25th-ranked 2.85 per game. They also rank 31st with a 10.8 power-play percentage. The Montreal Canadiens have been sneaky good at 5-on-5 with the ninth-fewest goals (2.31) per 60 minutes against and the fourth-highest team save percentage (.925).

Montreal is sending Cayden Primeau to the crease for a hometown start, as he was born and grew up near Philadelphia while his father played for the Flyers. The 24-year-old goalie has also been solid against middle- to below-average teams with a .939 SV% through four starts against the Blackhawks, Sabres, Sharks, and Red Wings.

I’m expecting this to be a low-scoring game, and for Primeau to make enough saves to keep the Flyers to three goals or fewer. Additionally, Philadelphia has played to the Under in five of its past seven games and four of its past five at home.

Flyers prop: Team total Under 3.5 goals (-115 at Bet99)

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Prop bet #3: Saves stack up for Ersson

This is a topable 24.5 saves total for Flyers goalie Samuel Ersson. The Flyers allow 29 shots per game, including 31.6 during their active 2-4-3 slump.

Additionally, the Canadiens have shown an uptick in shot volume of late and recorded 30+ shots in three of their past four games. The outlier was a road game against the Stars, and the Habs grabbed a 2-1 lead 9:46 into the first period and held onto the lead the rest of the way.

The Flyers are also a huge home favorite against the Habs, and like most teams, the Canadiens attempt far more shots when trailing. Montreal attempts 61.2 shots per 60 minutes when trailing, 54.17 when tied, and just 51.6 when leading. If Philadelphia jumps out to a lead as projected, Ersson should see enough shot volume to cash the Over.

Ersson has also settled into a nice groove with a .934 SV% across his past six starts, and I also value Philly sporting an underwhelming 48.1 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 during the noted slump. These Samuel Ersson odds aren’t fully taking into account his current heater or Montreal’s recent uptick in shot volume.

Samuel Ersson prop: Over 24.5 saves (-105 at Bet99)

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Source: https://thefoxposts.com/today-s-nhl-prop-picks-and-best-bets-wednesday-january-10-TheFOXposts-44902.html?utm_source=blogger_source&utm_medium=blogger_medium&utm_campaign=blogger_cam

Category: NHL

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